The Fed, Torn by Two Governor Dissents, Sticks to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Uncertainty

by Wolf Richter • Jul 30, 2025 • 19 Comments

“Uncertainty about the economy outlook” is back in full force in today’s statement, after it had “diminished” at the last meeting. QT continues.

Whacked Down by Plunging Inventories and Whacked Up by Plunging Imports, GDP Grows by 3.0%

by Wolf Richter • Jul 30, 2025 • 7 Comments

Consumer spending growth accelerated from low levels. Federal government spending drops for second quarter in a row.

Recklessly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $519 Billion since Debt Ceiling, Expected to Hit $37.8 Trillion by Yearend. $722 Billion in Treasury Auctions this Week Alone

by Wolf Richter • Jul 29, 2025 • 80 Comments

A Mississippi River of debt issuance. But the Treasury buybacks are small.

About this Churn in the Job Market

by Wolf Richter • Jul 29, 2025 • 23 Comments

The epic red-hot turnover in the labor market in 2021 and 2022 that had reshuffled the entire work force is over.

Fed’s Rates Not Restrictive for Markets. Financial Conditions Ultra-Loose. Manias Form, Margin Debt Blows Out, Junk Bonds Party in La-La-Land

by Wolf Richter • Jul 27, 2025 • 165 Comments

There are exceptions: Parts of commercial real estate are in a depression, and the housing resale market has frozen.

Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates

by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 107 Comments

At the long end, the bond market is nervous.

Inventory of New Single-Family Homes Spikes to Highest since 2007; in the South, Shoots Past Housing Bust High. Sales and Prices Drop

by Wolf Richter • Jul 24, 2025 • 104 Comments

Homebuilders cut prices, bring on supply; profits plunge back to earth. Medicine this overpriced housing market needs.

Single-Family Home Sales Drop Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016. Condo Sales at Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Level

by Wolf Richter • Jul 23, 2025 • 154 Comments

After the price explosion comes the hangover.

The 10 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-9% to -23%) from Peak through June

by Wolf Richter • Jul 22, 2025 • 37 Comments

Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Birmingham, Washington DC, Fort Myers, Denver, Portland, and Phoenix.

GM Ate $1.1 Billion in Tariffs in Q2, Will “Likely” Eat More in Q3, Shifts Production to the US to Cut Costs, and Has Cash Left Over to Waste on Share Buybacks

by Wolf Richter • Jul 22, 2025 • 99 Comments

Good news for the US economy, but not for the stock; shares tanked 8%.

Where Americans Spend their Trillions a Year on Goods and How that Changed Over Time

by Wolf Richter • Jul 21, 2025 • 81 Comments

Where they spend has changed dramatically, with only two winners that gained share among the retailer categories. The rest lost share, some are getting wiped out.

The 19 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Condos (-12% to -24% from Peak through June)

by Wolf Richter • Jul 19, 2025 • 43 Comments

Oakland, Austin, San Francisco, Denver, Tampa, Seattle, Saint Petersburg, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Boise, Jacksonville, Detroit, New Orleans, Portland, Arlington, Naples, Mesa, Aurora, Reno.

The Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: July 2025 Update

by Wolf Richter • Jul 18, 2025 • 91 Comments

US Treasury debt surged by $441 billion since the debt ceiling, to $36.7 trillion. Foreign demand for this stuff is an increasingly important issue.

My Thoughts about those June Retail Sales

by Wolf Richter • Jul 17, 2025 • 97 Comments

Tariff-frontrunning ruffled the numbers earlier. That dust has settled.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros

by Wolf Richter • Jul 16, 2025 • 91 Comments

US home prices nearly flat YoY, but fell in 21 of our 33 metros: Austin, Tampa, Miami, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle… YoY gains shrink further in Boston, Chicago, New York…

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, June 2025: Single-Family & Condo Prices Plunge to Multi-Year Lows in Toronto, Hit Record High in Montreal

by Wolf Richter • Jul 15, 2025 • 38 Comments

And everything in between: Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa, Halifax, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg.

Fed’s Nightmare: CPI Inflation in Services Reheats (not tariffed), while Inflation in Durable Goods, Apparel & Footwear (tariffed) Remains Cool

by Wolf Richter • Jul 15, 2025 • 188 Comments

While pundits looked with their magnifying glasses for tariffs in consumer goods prices, it was in services, which are not tariffed, where inflation took off again. Shocker? No

Homes for Sale Also Surge in Washington D.C., Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit, but Are Still Very Low

by Wolf Richter • Jul 14, 2025 • 27 Comments

They’re among the stragglers, behind other big markets whose inventories have shot up to at least decade-highs.

30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide

by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 169 Comments

The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.

Inventory of Homes for Sale Blows Out in Texas, Price Cuts Spike

by Wolf Richter • Jul 11, 2025 • 81 Comments

The situation in Texas and its four big metros, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio.